Three AIs, one verdict: LSU over Alabama

RedEye asked three AI platforms—ChatGPT, Claude and Muse—to size up LSU's Nov. 7 home game against Alabama. They received the same prompt, with the strongest model available for each. They came back with the same answer: the Tigers, in a close one.

Why it matters: AI doesn’t have a rooting interest, so its analysis should be more data-driven and dispassionate than the average fan’s. Plus, it’s Fun Friday at RedEye, and we wanted to see whether today’s models can do better than earlier versions, which were laughably bad at predicting the NCAA basketball tournament.

The prompt: "LSU plays Alabama in college football. Use the records of the two teams, strength of opponents and their game statistics to predict a winner of the game and give me a reason why."

ChatGPT: LSU 30-24. It sees the Tigers as the more complete team.

• LSU averages 40.1 points and about 510 yards while giving up 16 points and 258 yards.
• Alabama scores 38.3 and allows 21.3.
• The Tide played the tougher schedule, ChatGPT concedes, but LSU still holds the edge in SEC games alone. A 52% third-down rate, a stingy pass defense and the home crowd give LSU the win.

Claude: LSU 27-23. The focus is on where most of these games are decided: the line of scrimmage.

• LSU has 34 sacks. Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell has been sacked more than 20 times.
• The Tide's offense sputtered against the two best defenses it faced—17 points against Georgia, 10 against Tennessee.
• Steady pressure, Claude figures, keeps Alabama from the big plays that fueled its early-season blowouts.

The catch: Turnovers. Alabama is plus-seven with an opportunistic secondary. Pick off Sam Leavitt a few times, Claude says, and the whole thing flips.

Muse: LSU 31-24. The widest margin of the three, built on opponent-adjusted ratings.

• SP+ ranks LSU third nationally, tied with Notre Dame, and Alabama seventh, worth about four points to the Tigers before home field enters the conversation.
• Muse also likes LSU's pass rush against Alabama's protection, and Leavitt's knack for beating you with his arm or his legs.

The other side: Muse makes the best case for Alabama, and it's written in history. The Tide have won 13 of the last 15 meetings and six of the last seven in Tiger Stadium. And an afternoon kickoff takes some of the bite out of Death Valley after dark.

The AI bottom line: The scores run from 27-23 to 31-24, but nobody's hedging on the winner. Alabama's schedule and its taste for takeaways keep this honest. LSU's defense, its quarterback and a stadium full of familiar faces make the Tigers the pick.

RedEye pick: LSU 35, Alabama 24. The Tigers are rising, and Sam Leavitt is rolling after tossing three touchdowns against Auburn. Alabama’s young quarterback Keelon Russell completed more than 70% of his passes in a three-game stretch after the first two games, but has struggled in two of the last three, including barely completing half against Georgia. Now he walks into Tiger Stadium against the SEC’s best defense. That’s too much to overcome.

— Mukul Verma