Tide table

LSU has a 44% chance of making the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor—and Saturday’s game against Alabama will go a long way toward determining how meaningful the rest of its November schedule will be.

Why it matters: At 6-2, the Tigers are squarely on the bubble. ESPN’s latest bracket projection had them as the 12th and final team in, with Alabama, Texas and Tennessee still ahead in consecutive weeks.

The Alabama swing:

• Beat Alabama: more than 99%, with a 52% chance at a first-round bye.
• Lose to Alabama: 64%, with a 1% chance at a bye.
• Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC, meaning the setting sun will be finding its home in the western sky late in the third quarter or early fourth.

(Note: Those figures assume LSU wins every other game on its schedule.)

Nightmare scenario: Beat Alabama, Texas and Arkansas, but lose at Tennessee on Nov. 21? LSU still makes the playoff 68% of the time. The bye is gone, though, at 1%.

• No team that lost three regular-season games has made the 12-team CFP without winning its conference championship and claiming an automatic bid (Clemson, 2024).
• Alabama made the playoffs in 2025, but the Tide's third loss was in the SEC title game.

Play along: Want to torture yourself with other endings? Run your own scenarios in ESPN’s Predictor.

The bottom line: LSU controls its playoff destiny. How much longer that holds up depends heavily on Saturday’s outcome.