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# Tide table
- URL: https://www.redeyebr.com/lsu-football-cfp-playoff-odds-alabama-game/
- Published: 2026-11-01T23:32:11.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-01T23:32:11.000Z
- Author: JR Ball

LSU has a **44%** chance of making the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor—and Saturday’s game against Alabama will go a long way toward determining how meaningful the rest of its November schedule will be.

**Why it matters:** At 6-2, the Tigers are squarely on the bubble. ESPN’s latest bracket projection had them as the 12th and final team in, with Alabama, Texas and Tennessee still ahead in consecutive weeks.

**The Alabama swing:**

- Beat Alabama: more than 99%, with a 52% chance at a first-round bye.
- Lose to Alabama: 64%, with a 1% chance at a bye.
- Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC, meaning the setting sun will be finding its home in the western sky late in the third quarter or early fourth.

*(Note: Those figures assume LSU wins every other game on its schedule.)*

**Nightmare scenario:** Beat Alabama, Texas and Arkansas, but lose at Tennessee on Nov. 21? LSU still makes the playoff 68% of the time. The bye is gone, though, at 1%.

- No team that lost three regular-season games has made the 12-team CFP without winning its conference championship and claiming an automatic bid *(Clemson, 2024).*
- Alabama made the playoffs in 2025, but the Tide's third loss was in the SEC title game.

**Play along:** Want to torture yourself with other endings? Run your own scenarios in [ESPN’s Predictor](https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/%5F/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor?ref=redeyebr.com).

**The bottom line:** LSU controls its playoff destiny. How much longer that holds up depends heavily on Saturday’s outcome.