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# The cost of getting old
- URL: https://www.redeyebr.com/louisiana-population-aging-medicaid-tax-policy-brain-drain/
- Published: 2026-08-18T01:20:40.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-18T01:20:40.000Z
- Description: Louisiana is aging faster than the nation, straining a tax code built for a younger state.
- Author: JR Ball

Louisiana's population is aging faster than the national average, and the state's recent tax swap just steered its budget onto a collision course with a financial iceberg.

**Why it matters:** The state rewriting its tax code last year, while its Medicaid program is already under financial strain, means Baton Rouge taxpayers will absorb both bills, whether anyone's watching the demographic clock or not.

**Perfect aging storm:** The population is growing older but not up because three trends are compounding at once, according to LSU Shreveport's Center for Business and Economic Research ([CBER](https://www.lsus.edu/Documents/CBER/CBER%20Reports%20page/Louisiana%E2%80%99s%20Increasing%20Senior%20Population%201980%20to%202024.pdf?ref=redeyebr.com)).

- Louisianans are living longer than they did a generation ago.
- Birth rates have fallen, mirroring the rest of the country.
- The state continues to shed working-age residents who'd otherwise offset both.

**Plain speak:** "We're living longer, we're not having as many children, and the state is losing population," said **Douglas White**, CBER director.

**Who's leaving:** Louisiana's outmigration has skewed young for decades, and that's part of what's aging the state.

- Louisiana has lost a [net 110,000 college-educated residents](https://thevermilion.net/2024/03/17/louisianas-brain-drain-increasing/?ref=redeyebr.com) since 2000, according to UL-Lafayette economist Gary Wagner.
- LSU's enrollment boom helped Baton Rouge [gain nearly 18,000 residents](https://www.ktbs.com/news/louisiana/new-data-shows-louisiana-is-losing-college-grads-to-texas-other-states/article%5F81c8fb76-046d-11ee-bed7-efb07d061a61.html?ref=redeyebr.com) under 25 from 2005 to 2020\. But it loses them after graduation, explaining a net loss in the 25-to-34 age group.
- Every one of those departures was a resident who would have spent the next four decades keeping the parish's average age down.

**Callin' Baton Rouge:** East Baton Rouge Parish is the poster child for the national story, where the ratio of kids to seniors has collapsed.

- EBR counted roughly four kids for every senior in 1980.
- By 2024, that ratio had fallen below 1.5.

**Glimmer of hope:** Louisiana's population grew in 2024 for the first time since 2017, snapping years of decline, driven by a surge in international immigration.

**Do we care?** Most Louisiana seniors who need long-term care would rather stay home, yet the state's Medicaid program is built the opposite way.

- Louisiana spends 20% of its long-term care [Medicaid dollars](https://parlouisiana.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Elderly-Care-Services-in-Louisiana.pdf?ref=redeyebr.com) on home- and community-based care. The national average is triple that, 62%.
- Nursing home spending, under $1 billion a decade ago, has grown to an estimated $1.3 billion this year, even as the number of nursing home residents has fallen.
- The waiver program that pays for home-based care carries a waitlist of more than 5,700 people.

**The state's gamble:** Louisiana flattened its income tax in late 2024, leaning more heavily on sales tax to cover the gap—both of which shrink as the population ages.

- The [Legislative Fiscal Office](https://www.legis.la.gov/Legis/ViewDocument.aspx?d=1391515&ref=redeyebr.com) projects that individual income tax collections will fall by roughly $1.4 billion per year by 2029.
- The companion sales tax hike is expected to cover most of that loss, but the bill's fiscal note never mentions the impact of the state's aging population.
- The same reality is putting pressure on East Baton Rouge's general fund, which *RedEye* has already reported runs on [14 cents](https://www.redeyebr.com/14-cents/) of every parishwide dollar.

**The bottom line:** Louisiana's tax policy, coupled with an aging population, is creating a titanic bill that future generations will have to pay.

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